THE FUTURE OF HVAC: TRENDS AND TECHNOLOGY
New HVAC technologies are reshaping how New Jersey homeowners manage comfort, energy costs, and the environmental impact of energy use.
Driven by stricter efficiency mandates, regulatory pressure, and public knowledge of sustainability, demand is rising for smarter HVAC systems. New Jersey homeowners are leading the way, adopting cleaner energy choices.
Reducing energy consumption and shifting away from limited resources can’t be accomplished purely by will alone: The future of HVAC systems is driven by technological innovations that enable society to change.
Below, we explore the future HVAC trends that impact how virtually every home will be warmed and cooled, and how these trends affect you.
KEY TECHNOLOGY TRENDS SHAPING THE HVAC INDUSTRY
The path to a successful increase in efficient energy use is innovation. Since the energy used to heat and cool buildings accounts for about 35% of the total energy we use, the future of HVAC is central to reducing energy use and improving the value we get from modern systems.
SMART THERMOSTATS AND CONNECTED CONTROLS
Smart thermostats use machine learning (ML) to adapt to your habits and routines. Nest thermostats are learning thermostats, adjusting automated settings based on your schedule, and providing remote temperature control through your smartphone and voice commands.
These smart devices minimize energy waste during unoccupied hours without sacrificing comfort. They even use weather forecast data to optimize settings. For some who are looking to add this new level of data intelligence to their home, the smart thermostat likely is an important piece of the larger puzzle of turning an efficient home into a smart home.
AI-driven HVAC systems go further by using sensors to detect occupancy, humidity, and outdoor conditions in real time. AI makes it possible to reduce output in empty rooms, analyze usage patterns, and dynamically match heating or cooling to actual demand.
There are now over 105 ENERGY STAR-certified smart thermostat models, with features like geofencing, humidity sensing, and time-of-day programming.
AI is also used for predictive maintenance, where historical data and real-time performance metrics help predict potential component failures before they become expensive problems. Embedded sensors monitor system health 24/7, triggering maintenance requirements before they become part replacements or major repairs.
ADVANCED ZONING AND INTEGRATION
Variable Refrigerant Flow (VRF) systems deliver precise temperature control across multiple building zones simultaneously, so energy is used where it is needed.
Sensor-enhanced ventilation systems use smart vents that monitor temperature, air pressure, and indoor air quality in every individual room. These systems can be controlled via smartphone apps.
WILL HVAC TECHNICIANS BE REPLACED BY AI?
With all of these optimizations, it might seem like AI will replace how we have relied on HVAC experts for maintenance and repairs. In truth, these innovations make proactive maintenance even easier for your HVAC specialist, make it easier to keep your system in its best condition, and may save you from unnecessary, costly repairs.
The DOE is deploying AI to modernize the energy grid through predictive maintenance, optimize building HVAC systems in real time, and accelerate development of advanced solar and battery technologies.
HEAT PUMP EXPANSION
Heat pumps deliver higher efficiency than natural gas, oil, and propane. Modern heat pumps cost around the same to operate as natural gas and far less than oil or propane, but they are twice as efficient. This makes the heat pump a helpful investment in the transition to long-term sustainability goals in New Jersey.
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Ground-source (geothermal) heat pumps: These use underground pipes to leverage constant ground temperatures for heating and cooling.
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Ductless mini-splits: Mini-splits offer flexible, room-by-room control without ductwork modifications, making them ideal for homes with radiators or older infrastructure.
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Dual-fuel systems: These systems pair heat pumps with existing gas furnaces as a transition strategy—using electricity in mild weather and gas below 35°F.
ELECTRIFICATION
The US Energy Information Administration's 2020 Residential Energy Consumption Survey states that electricity use is becoming more common for the 18,496 households sampled. Electrification is considered the long-view of transitioning to a more efficient use of energy while also reducing dependence on limited resources.
New Jersey's 2020 Energy Master Plan projects “electrification of 90% of thermal loads in buildings” by 2050. This includes water heating and space heating. Currently, 75% of New Jersey residences use natural gas for heating, and 10% depend on oil or propane. This means the shift toward electrification over the next 20+ years is significant.
INDOOR AIR QUALITY INNOVATIONS
HVAC systems serve as a first line of defense against indoor pollutants, making Indoor Air Quality (IAQ) a central focus of modern climate control design.
The US indoor air quality market is expected to grow from $9.8 billion in 2022 to $11.9 billion by 2027, driven by an increased demand for HVAC-integrated solutions like advanced filtration, UV-C sterilization, and continuous air quality monitoring.
Modern HVAC systems increasingly incorporate advanced IAQ technologies, where UV-C light sterilization units are installed in the home’s ductwork to eliminate pathogens. Bipolar ionization systems attach to air handlers to neutralize pollutants.
Air purifiers like iWave and Air Scrubbers are made to integrate with existing HVAC infrastructure to help with allergens.
Sensors and monitors track real-time air quality data and trigger automated adjustments to ventilation.
Another advancement directing the future of IAQ is the energy-recovery ventilator, which exchanges indoor air for fresh outdoor air, while also reducing the energy it takes for proper ventilation.
EMERGING EFFICIENCY TECHNOLOGIES
Beyond these innovations, several specialized technologies are gaining traction as well, each with a unique approach to efficient energy use.
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DeVAP HVAC: This evaporative cooling system has a honeycomb structure that absorbs water. By first removing moisture from incoming air using a liquid dessicant—a substance that absorbs water—this evaporation process cools dried air, using far less energy than compressor-based air conditioning.
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Ice-powered cooling (Ice Bear): This system capitalizes on low-cost energy by freezing water at night during off-peak hours, keeping buildings cool for hours before they require conventional AC.
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On-demand hot water recirculators: These pumps recirculate cool water back to a heater instead of down the drain, cutting 12,000 gallons of annual water waste per home while reducing water and energy costs.
ENERGY AND COST FORECASTS
Understanding the economics of future HVAC technology upgrades helps you make informed decisions about when to invest in new technology. While upfront costs remain a consideration, efficiency improvements and state incentives are reshaping the financial equation.
A 2023 study of 1,800 adults found people’s willingness to adopt heat pumps and other sustainable solutions depends on their knowledge of energy systems and climate concerns. Likewise, homeowners with existing natural gas-based heating systems continue to view cost as a significant barrier to change.
Efficiency improvements driving heat pump adoption are measured using the SEER2 (Seasonal Energy Efficiency Ratio) standard for rating cooling performance, while HSPF2 (Heating Seasonal Performance Factor) measures heating efficiency.
These standards directly impact your long-term costs. A high-efficiency heat pump with SEER2 ratings above 16 and HSPF2 above 9 can dramatically reduce your heating and cooling expenses.
According to New Jersey's 2020 Energy Master Plan, typical heat pump installations range from $4,000–$7,000. The American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy (ACEEE) found that it takes around 2 years to recoup the initial cost in efficiency savings when replacing oil or propane furnaces, and 6–9 years for oil or propane boiler replacements.
New Jersey’s Energy Master Plan projects 97% growth in the demand for total electricity by 2050. The shift toward electrified heating will lead to winter-peaking grid loads, but this is viewed as a net positive for reduced reliance on fossil fuels, and reduced costs for homeowners despite initial costs.
New Jersey homeowners are making significant progress on energy efficiency. According to the New Jersey Board of Public Utilities in 2025, the state jumped nearly 90% in efficiency savings since its previous American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy (ACEE) Scorecard: the nation’s biggest gain in utility energy efficiency savings.
The path forward is clear: New Jersey's shift from fossil fuels to electricity will reshape your energy costs. Because of their efficiency, heat pumps help dramatically reduce energy costs despite an increase in electricity use. With education, people aren’t just willing to shift toward efficiency: New Jersey is leading the way to the future.
SUSTAINABILITY AND REGULATIONS
As of January 1, 2025, federal regulations restrict manufacturing and selling high-global-warming-potential HFC refrigerants. The EPA is requiring the use of lower impact options under the American Innovation and Manufacturing Act, impacting the future of sustainable HVAC designs for all new air conditioning, heat pump, and refrigeration equipment.
Meanwhile, New Jersey mandates that electric utilities reduce consumption by 2% or more annually, with gas utilities required to reduce consumption by 0.75% annually, accelerating HVAC upgrades statewide. The state's Comfort Partners program provides no-cost HVAC replacements and weatherization for households at or below 250% of the federal poverty level, ensuring the transition benefits all income levels.
HOW YOU CAN PREPARE AS A HOMEOWNER
With 72% of New Jersey households still relying on natural gas and 9% on oil, there’s a long distance for the path forward. Understanding these emerging HVAC technologies helps you make smart decisions about when and how to upgrade your system.
Most HVAC systems last 10–15 years with proper maintenance. If your equipment is approaching this age, now is the time to evaluate your options rather than waiting for an emergency breakdown. Regular maintenance and seasonal filter changes can extend your system’s lifespan and help you get the best efficiency from your current system.
If you heat with oil, propane, or electric baseboard, you’ll want to think about a more efficiency-focused and future-focused system when it comes time to replace it.
Heat pumps provide both heating and air conditioning, effectively replacing two systems, but for New Jersey homes that aren’t outfitted with ductwork, you could look into a mini-split heat pump to avoid major renovation.
One decision you may want to make soon, regardless of other equipment changes, is installing a smart thermostat, which can effectively increase comfort while reducing energy use and costs.
PARTNER WITH THE PROFESSIONALS
With all the current and future HVAC trends, you may feel overwhelmed by the options available. It’s important to talk to an HVAC professional you trust, one who understands the local New Jersey climate.
Our friendly experts at A.J. Perri would be honored to talk to you about how the right HVAC system can improve your comfort while improving your home’s efficiency.
Call 732-733-2541 or schedule an appointment so we can help guide you in making this important decision.